Ontario Junior A Final Preview

After a blitz of a season we end up with the top two teams in the regular season battling for a trip to New Westminster, BC and a shot at the Minto Cup. It's Whitby vs Six Nations just like we all predicted in the preseason (ok maybe not all of us)

Here are some keys to watch:

For the Arrows-
1- Can their defense/goaltending hold up?
After springing leaks against KW in the opening round, Six Nations tightened the screws on the Peterborough Lakers in round 2, holding Turner Evans and Co to 7 goals per game. Whitby's fast break presents a difficult task and the Arrows will need some big stops by Warren Hill and Don Alton.

2-Powless: The man, the myth...the legend?
In our season preview we wrote that Powless and Randy Staats would only be judged by how they fare in this series. Powless has been a force all playoffs long. For him to become a legend of the game, he needs to take over this series much like Jeremy Noble did for Orangeville in 2012.

For the Warriors-
1- The Buque Wall.
Alexis Buque was a deserving choice as best goaltender in 2013 and he needs to be every bit the best goalie for Whitby to win this series. If he outplays the Arrows duo, Whitby wins this series going away. If the Arrows goaltending can match Buque, then BC should prepare for the JP93 experience.

2- Been there, done that
The big guns of this Warriors team have been to two straight Minto Cups (admittedly as hosts in 2012) and will carry a sizeable advantage in big game experience because of it. If Whitby can keep their composure in the cauldron that is the ILA and steal an early road win, they have the know how to book a third Minto Cup berth.

Best guesstimate:
Do we go with the best player in Jr A (sorry BC guys like Wes Berg) in Johnny Powless or the experienced Warriors? Will the final matchup of Warren Hill and Alexis Buque (both 1992 born players who have battled since Tyke) be an epic battle or a one-sided mismatch? Have we spent our entire preview without mentioning Reilly O'Connor, Curtis Knight, Dan Lintner, Michael MacDonald, Josh Johnson, Vaughan Harris and Brendan Bomberry? (yes, all of them are excellent players in their own right and well worth the price of admission).
Our estimate is that this series will turn on Game 3's result. We'll take the experienced and on fire Warriors to win this in 6...warily. This is really too close to call.

Your 2013 Ontario Junior A All Stars and Award Winners

Congratulations to the below All Stars and Award winners. The selections below all had incredible years and were very deserving of being honoured.

First All Star Team
Goalie: Alexis Buque- Whitby Warriors
Def: Derek Searle- Burlington Chiefs
Def: Graeme Hossack- Whitby Warriors
Off: Johnny Powless- Six Nations Arrows
Off: Dhane Smith- KW Braves
Off: Turner Evans- Peterborough Lakers

Second All Star Team
Goalie: Doug Buchan- Burlington Chiefs
Def: Austin Divitcos- Orangeville Northmen
Def: Nick Weiss- Peterborough Lakers
Off: Curtis Knight- Whitby Warriors
Off: Randy Staats- Six Nations Arrows
Off: Rob Hellyer- Orangeville Northmen

Robert Melville Award (Lowest Goals Against Avg- Goalies)
Don Alton and Warren Hill- Six Nations Arrows

Bobby Allan Award (Scoring Leader)
Dhane Smith- KW Braves

Joe Nieuwendyk Award (Rookie)
Dallas Bridle- Orangeville Northmen

Gus McCauley Award (Defensive Player)
Derek Searle- Burlington Chiefs

Gaylord Powelss Award (Sportsmanlike)
Rob Hellyer- Orangeville Northmen

Jim Veltman Award (Outstanding Player)
Johnny Powless- Six Nations Arrows

Jim Bishop Award (Coaching Staff)
Barrie Lakeshores- Lindsay Sanderson, Jim Rankin, Nate Sanderson and Brandon Ree

Sanderson Memorial Award (Outstanding Goalie)
Alexis Buque- Whitby Warriors

Dennis McIntosh Award (Most Valuable Player)
Johnny Powless- Six Nations Arrows

ON Jr A Expanded Standings- Season Ending Edition

It was a quick turn around from the final games on Friday to the first playoff games on Sunday but here is the end of season Expanded Standings for the Ontario Jr A league.

Some Notes:

10 goals was the key to victory this year. Teams that held their opponent under 10 goals won 94 games out of 110, an astonishing 85% of games. Each team in the league won at least 1 game when holding the opponent under 10 goals...yes Mississauga's lone win qualified.

Six Nations was the only team to score 100 goals in a single period this season (101 in the second period). The next highest goals for in a period was Orangeville's 82 in first periods this year.

The KW Braves played 21 games this year. Well not really but their 6 overtime games is the equivalent of one extra game. They finished 0-5-1 in those overtime games.

A late scoring binge pushed the league to over 19 total goals per game this year (19.17 to be exact).

Six Nations, Whitby, Burlington and Brampton were a combined 56-0 when leading after the second period. The same four teams were 1-17-1 when trailing after the second period.

Now onto the final Expanded Standings for 2013

Team	W	L	T	Pts	GF	GA	Home	H GF	H GA	Away	A GF	A GA	OT
Six Nations Arrows	17	3	0	34	243	141	9-1	124	62	8-2	119	79	1-0
Whitby Warriors	15	5	0	30	223	147	9-1	121	67	6-4	102	80
Burlington Chiefs	14	5	1	29	225	176	8-2	134	86	6-3-1	91	90	1-0-1
Brampton Excelsiors	13	7	0	26	216	195	7-3	116	99	6-4	100	96
Orangeville Northmen	12	8	0	24	212	187	6-4	102	88	6-4	110	99	1-1
Peterborough Lakers	11	9	0	22	229	192	6-4	119	90	5-5	110	102
Barrie Lakeshores	10	10	0	20	186	191	5-5	97	93	5-5	89	98	3-0
KW Braves	7	12	1	15	184	190	2-7-1	84	89	5-5	100	101	0-5-1
Toronto Beaches	6	14	0	12	164	215	2-7	84	107	4-6	80	108
St. Catharines Athletics	3	17	0	6	113	209	1-9	61	105	2-8	52	104
Mississauga Tomahawks	1	19	0	2	114	266	0-10	61	120	1-9	53	146

Team	2 G or less	3G or more	v.500+=	v.500-	GF 1	GA 1	GF 2	GA 2	GF 3	GA 3	GF OT	GA OT
Six Nations Arrows	1-2	16-1	9-3	7-0	75	41	101	54	64	44	3	2
Whitby Warriors	2-3	13-2	8-3	7-1	71	44	79	58	73	45	0	0
Burlington Chiefs	3-1-1	11-4	7-5-1	6-0	72	52	79	64	71	59	3	1
Brampton Excelsiors	5-3	8-4	7-5	6-2	72	59	78	71	66	65	0	0
Orangeville Northmen	4-2	8-6	5-8	6-0	82	71	64	60	62	53	4	3
Peterborough Lakers	2-3	9-6	4-6	6-3	78	62	81	64	70	66	0	0
Barrie Lakeshores	5-3	5-7	3-9	6-1	52	71	79	59	49	59	6	2
KW Braves	2-5-1	5-7	2-7-1	5-3	60	70	72	66	48	42	4	12
Toronto Beaches	3-2	3-12	2-10	4-2	60	71	62	78	42	66	0	0
St. Catharines Athletics	0-2	3-15	1-12	2-4	38	73	36	84	39	52	0	0
Mississauga Tomahawks	1-2	0-17	0-15	1-4	37	83	36	109	41	74	0	0

Team	Ld 2L-L5	Ld 3+- L5	Tr 2L-L5	Tr 3+ -L5	T-L5	Ld 1st	Ld 2nd	Tr 1st	Tr 2nd	Opp >=10	Opp <10 td="">
Six Nations Arrows	1-1	15-0	0-2	0-1	1-1	12-1	17-0	1-2	0-2	2-2	15-1
Whitby Warriors	2-0	12-0	1-3	0-2	1-0	11-0	14-0	2-2	0-4	0-2	15-3
Burlington Chiefs	5-0	11-0	1-1-1	0-4	2-1	12-0	14-0	0-3-1	0-5-1	2-5	12-0-1
Brampton Excelsiors	5-1	10-0	0-2	0-3	2-2	11-1	11-0	0-4	1-6	3-7	10-0
Orangeville Northmen	7-1	5-0	0-1	0-6	2-2	9-1	9-1	2-6	1-7	2-8	10-0
Peterborough Lakers	2-1	10-0	0-4	0-7	0-1	8-1	10-2	0-6	0-7	2-8	9-1
Barrie Lakeshores	2-0	5-0	3-6	0-8	4-0	5-0	7-0	4-8	1-9	3-9	7-1
KW Braves	2-2-1	5-0	0-4	0-6	0-5	4-2-1	7-0-1	1-8	0-9	1-9	6-3-1
Toronto Beaches	3-0	4-0	1-3	0-11	1-1	3-3	5-1	2-9	1-12	0-11	6-3
St. Catharines Athletics	1-0	3-0	0-3	0-15	0-0	2-1	3-1	1-14	0-16	0-12	3-5
Mississauga Tomahawks	1-0	0-0	0-2	0-16	0-0	0-3	0-0	0-15	1-19	0-17	1-2

LLB's Quick 2013 Playoff Preview

Here is our no muss, no fuss first round playoff preview for the Ontario Jr A league.

#1 Six Nations Arrows vs #8 KW Braves

Expect lots of goals with Dhane Smith (KW) and Johnny Powless (Six Nations) in this series. They finished 1-2 in scoring this season with Smith also leading the league in goals with 61.

For KW:
Can KW get any scoring beyond their big 3 players? Can Kyle Jackson rebound from a sub-par year to be the dynamic goal scorer he was in 2012? These two questions will go a long way to answering whether the Braves can sneak a victory out of this series.
For Six Nations:
How long will Randy Staats be out of the lineup? Are Josh Johnson and and Brendan Bomberry truly ready to assume more of the scoring load for the Arrows? Against the Braves we will just start finding out about the boys in Orange but we think a positive answer to the second question will be more important for Six Nations' Minto travel plans during the playoffs. (not to discount the impact that a healthy Randy Staats can have to the Arrows)

Best guess result: Arrows in 3 games but all relatively close because of KW's Big 3.

#2 Whitby Warriors vs #7 Barrie Lakeshores

These two teams gave you the opposite sides of the story "A Tale of Two Seasons". Barrie started fast and ultimately settled down into 7th spot by the end of the season. Whitby started slow and then kept winning and winning their way to second place.

For Barrie
Will Whitlow, Craig and Murphy find any room against the suffocating Warriors defense? How will the Lakeshores handle their first playoff action in a few years? Barrie is young and hungry but this may have been the worst possible matchup for them in the ultra-experienced Warriors.
For Whitby
After winning their final 8 games, will Whitby underestimate the gritty Lakeshores? Is O'Connor to Lintner the best high-low pairing in Jr A Lacrosse? The depth and speed game of Whitby gives plenty of teams trouble and look for it to also bother Barrie.

Best Guess result: A testy series but we will take the tested Warriors in a sweep over the kiddie corps in Barrie.

#3 Burlington Chiefs vs #6 Peterborough Lakers

Hands up those of you that thought at the start of the season this could be a playoff matchup AND Peterborough would be the 6 seed? As expected, not many hands up. However it is what we got and what a series to look forward to and our pick as most compelling first round series.

For Peterborough
Do they have the horses beyond Turner Evans to score enough goals on the road? Will the playoffs be the beginning of a run or the merciful end to an indifferent season? The Lakers need to control the tempo and slow down the speedy Chiefs in order to have a chance. If they can do it and muck up the game a bit then this becomes a real chess match and it helps to have one of the top 5 players in the league (Evans) on your side.
For Burlington
How long will Bryan Cole be out? Can the Chiefs dictate tempo on the road like they do at home? Cole is a key transition player for Burlington and in their final game of the season he was ejected with a Match Penalty. The longer he is out the more difficult it will be for the Chiefs to push the pace. Burlington finished 8-2 at home this season and scored at will vs the slow it down Lakers in two regular season games.


Best guess result: Peterborough slows down the Chiefs at times but cannot do it full time and Burlington runs to a 4 game victory.

#4 Brampton Excelsiors vs #5 Orangeville Northmen

This is the series that both teams wanted and they got it. This has all the hallmarks of the roughest and nastiest series with plenty of animosity built up over the past 4 years.

For Orangeville
Who will provide scoring beyond Rob Hellyer? Is Mike Fournier ready to assume the title as "Northmen Starting Goalie"? Beyond Rob Hellyer, the Northmen have a bevy of solid players but no one that can take over a game when it matters most. They will need inspired performances from the secondary players to have a chance. Fournier will also need to make key saves against the high powered Excelsiors... Orangeville has had a run of really strong goaltending but does it end in 2013?
For Brampton
How healthy is Shane MacDonald? Can anyone survive after playing in the two hottest arenas in Lacrosse? The health of MacDonald will be a real key for the Excelsiors. He played the final 4 games but had minimal impact on the score sheet. Brampton needs him to be near 100% to become truly dangerous on offense. Also if you a fan of either team, bring a fan to the games. You will thank us later.


Best guess result: The Bunny Barn ghosts scare up a Northmen victory in Game 2 but Brampton's offense proves too much and lead them to a 4 game series win.

Jr A End of Season Primer

The OLA Jr A season is coming down to the final day with two huge games that could impact nearly all the playoff seedings. Lets take a look at the possibilities starting with the the really easy game.

Burlington at Whitby- Friday at 8pm.

Chiefs hold a 1 point lead over the Warriors so a Chiefs Win or Tie clinches them second spot and a matchup with Barrie in the first round. A Whitby Win vaults them over Burlington into second place and Barrie for playoffs.

Peterborough at Brampton- Friday at 8pm

Here is where things get fun. A Brampton Win gives them 4th spot, Orangeville 5th and the Lakers will be 6th.

A Lakers win leaves Brampton, Orangeville and Peterborough tied with 24 points and brings in the 3-Team Tiebreaker. Thankfully this tiebreaker does not need to go beyond the head to head to head records. A Peterborough win gives them a 3-1 record vs Brampton and Orangeville and 4th place. Brampton would be 5th place with their 2-2 record (having split season series vs both opponents). The sinking Northmen would fall to 6th spot and a matchup with the loser of the Burlington/Whitby game.

(Update: Some confusion now on whether the Jr A league uses the head to head to head record or goes straight to the Goal Formula in OLA Constitution. Regardless of the tie breaker method, if Peterborough wins in Brampton on Friday they will be 4th, Brampton 5th and Orangeville 6th. The current GF% for each is 0.607 for Lakers, 0.508 for Excelsiors and 0.419 for Northmen and a Peterborough win can only improve their number and subtract for Brampton's number....though it would take a monumental blowout by around 15 goals to drop them to 6th.)

Plenty to watch on Friday night in the GTA with a wild Jr A season coming down to the wire. We'll be watching to see how it falls out and look for our quick playoff preview on Saturday!

BC Jr A Expanded Standings- Season End

The BC Jr A season is over and everyone is looking forward to playoffs, well maybe everyone except Port Coquitlam and Delta who have both thrown up the flag of surrender early and look like roadkill in first round matchups vs Victoria and Langley.

Here are some interesting stats for the 2013 season:

The Victoria Shamrocks and Nanaimo Timbermen were the only teams to both score and give up 200 or more goals.

Victoria led the league with 308 goals scored. They were also the only BCJALL team to go undefeated when holding their opponent under 10 goals scored (they were 9-0).

New Westminster and Coquitlam were a combined 31-0 when leading after two periods. Incredible.

Not one team came back from 3 or more goals in the final 5 minutes to win a game during the 2013 season. So much for Lacrosse being a game that is never over until it's over.

The Salmonbellies forfeited victory over Nanaimo ultimately cost them first place. That is painful.

There were nearly as many goals scored in the third period (568) as in the first period (573) in 2013. Overall the league averaged 21.73 goals per game in 2013 though that rose in the final week with some huge blowouts.

Coquitlam and Nanaimo are the only teams to not record a win when trailing after first or second period. hard to believe we are talking about the first place and seventh place team together.

Now bring on the playoffs!

Team	W	L	T	Pts	GF	GA	Home	H GF	H GA	Away	A GF	A GA	OT
Coquitlam Adanacs	17	4	0	34	242	151	8-3	127	82	9-1	115	69	0
New Westminster Salmonbellies *	16	5	0	32	285	164	9-2	159	79	8-2	126	85	1-1
Langley Thunder	14	7	0	28	228	188	7-3	113	81	7-4	115	107	2-1
Victoria Shamrocks	14	7	0	28	308	220	7-4	162	116	7-3	146	104	1-1
Delta Islanders	11	10	0	22	222	192	5-5	117	96	6-5	105	96	1-1
Port Coquitlam Saints	7	13	1	15	188	251	3-7-1	95	125	4-6	93	126	1-0-1
Nanaimo Timbermen *	3	17	1	7	200	274	1-9	98	106	1-9-1	102	168	0-1-1
Burnaby Lakers	1	20	0	2	131	364	0-10	66	182	1-10	65	182	0

Team	2 G less	3G +	v.500+=	v.500-	GF 1st	GA 1st	GF 2nd	GA 2nd	GF 3rd	GA 3rd	GF OT	GA OT
Coquitlam Adanacs	3-2	15-1	10-3	6-1	96	42	74	61	72	48	0	0
New Westminster Salmonbellies	4-2	13-2	9-3	8-0	91	50	96	59	96	51	2	4
Langley Thunder	3-4	11-3	6-7	7-0	64	59	88	61	69	64	7	4
Victoria Shamrocks	4-1	10-6	5-7	8-0	95	73	114	70	97	73	2	4
Delta Islanders	3-4	8-6	4-9	6-1	66	60	80	63	74	67	2	2
Port Coquitlam Saints	3-1-1	4-12	2-11	5-1-1	58	83	69	89	57	81	2	0
Nanaimo Timbermen	0-5-1	2-13	0-14	2-3-1	62	89	73	100	65	84	0	1
Burnaby Lakers	1-0	0-20	0-13	1-6	41	117	54	145	38	100	0	0

Team	Ld 2L-L5	Ld 3+- L5	Tr 2L-L5	Tr 3+ -L5	T-L5	Ld 1st	Ld 2nd	Tr 1st	Tr 2nd	Opp >=10	Opp <10 td="">
Coquitlam Adanacs	2-0	13-0	0-2	0-1	0-1	17-1	17-0	0-2	0-3	1-3	16-1
New Westminster Salmonbellies	3-0	14-0	1-3	0-1	3-2	13-1	14-0	3-2	1-4	3-3	14-1
Langley Thunder	3-1	9-0	1-2	0-5	3-2	9-1	12-1	3-5	1-6	2-5	12-2
Victoria Shamrocks	4-1	10-0	0-1	0-5	3-1	9-1	14-1	2-6	0-5	5-7	9-0
Delta Islanders	2-1	9-0	0-4	0-6	2-3	7-2	9-1	3-6	0-9	1-7	10-3
Port Coquitlam Saints	4-0-1	3-0	1-1	0-11	2-1-1	4-3	5-0-1	2-10-1	2-11	2-11-1	5-2
Nanaimo Timbermen	0-0	2-0	0-6-1	0-12	0-3-1	2-3-1	2-1	0-13	0-15-1	1-17-1	1-1
Burnaby Lakers	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-20	0-0	0-2	0-0	1-17	0-20	1-20	0-0

ON Jr A Expanded Standings Week 8

We are in the stretch drive in Ontario as the regular season ends this Friday. Here are some important things to note.

Burlington and Whitby engaged in some great scheduling as their game on the final day of the season looks like it will decide second place. We'll give the slightest of edges right now to Whitby as they host this game and are particularly stingy in IPA but this one will be a dandy for the fans at the OLA Qualifiers to see. Of course should Whitby drop their Tuesday game vs Peterborough then it all but seals their fate as third place finishers.

Brampton, Orangeville and Peterborough are locked in a pitched battle for 4th, 5th and 6th spot over the final week and the Excelsiors control their destiny. The Excelsiors host both teams this week and can lock up fourth place with two big wins. The return of Shane MacDonald certainly bolsters Brampton's lineup so let's give them the inside lane to that fourth spot.

Lastly, the first place Arrows and 8th place Braves engaged in an old fashioned score-fest over the weekend with Johnny Powless putting up 8 points to narrow the gap on Dhane Smith for scoring leader. Six Nations plays the Beach and Missy while KW gets a granding Barrie Lakeshores squad in their final match. Can Powless make up the 4 point gap to steal the league scoring title from Smith? Lots of fun to watch over these last 4 days.

Team	W	L	T	Pts	GF	GA	Home	H GF	H GA	Away	A GF	A GA	OT
Six Nations Arrows	15	3	0	30	222	131	8-1	113	56	7-2	109	75	1-0
Burlington Chiefs	13	4	1	27	200	157	7-2	117	81	6-2-1	83	76	1-0-1
Whitby Warriors	13	5	0	26	197	134	7-1	95	54	6-4	102	80
Orangeville Northmen	12	6	0	24	194	163	6-4	102	88	6-2	92	75	1-1
Peterborough Lakers	10	7	0	20	205	162	5-4	108	84	5-3	97	78
Brampton Excelsiors	10	7	0	20	177	167	5-3	91	79	5-4	86	88
Barrie Lakeshores	9	10	0	18	176	182	5-5	97	93	4-5	79	89	2-0
KW Braves	7	11	1	15	175	180	2-6-1	75	79	5-5	100	101	0-4-1
Toronto Beaches	6	12	0	12	150	190	2-6	76	93	4-5	74	97
St. Catharines Athletics	2	17	0	4	94	204	0-9	42	100	2-8	52	104
Mississauga Tomahawks	1	16	0	2	100	220	0-9	57	110	1-7	43	110

Team	2 G or less	3G or more	v.500+=	v.500-	GF 1	GA 1	GF 2	GA 2	GF 3	GA 3	GF OT	GA OT
Six Nations Arrows	1-2	14-1	9-3	5-0	67	39	93	47	59	43	3	2
Burlington Chiefs	3-1-1	10-3	7-4-1	5-0	64	49	67	57	66	50	3	1
Whitby Warriors	2-3	11-2	6-3	7-1	66	40	70	53	61	41	0	0
Orangeville Northmen	4-1	8-5	5-6	6-0	75	59	59	54	56	47	4	3
Peterborough Lakers	2-3	8-4	3-4	6-3	70	53	76	54	59	55	0	0
Brampton Excelsiors	4-3	6-4	5-5	5-2	58	51	68	63	51	53	0	0
Barrie Lakeshores	4-3	5-7	3-9	5-1	51	69	73	56	47	55	5	2
KW Braves	2-4-1	5-7	2-7-1	5-2	58	69	69	60	44	40	4	11
Toronto Beaches	3-2	3-10	2-8	4-2	57	64	53	71	40	55	0	0
St. Catharines Athletics	0-2	2-15	1-12	1-4	28	72	33	82	33	50	0	0
Mississauga Tomahawks	1-2	0-14	0-13	1-3	34	63	30	94	36	63	0	0

Team	Ld 2L-L5	Ld 3+- L5	Tr 2L-L5	Tr 3+ -L5	T-L5	Ld 1st	Ld 2nd	Tr 1st	Tr 2nd	Opp >=10	Opp <10 td="">
Six Nations Arrows	1-1	13-0	0-2	0-1	1-1	10-1	15-0	1-2	0-2	2-2	13-1
Burlington Chiefs	5-0	10-0	1-1-1	0-3	2-1	11-0	13-0	0-3-1	0-4-1	2-4	11-0-1
Whitby Warriors	2-0	10-0	1-3	0-2	1-0	10-0	12-0	2-2	0-4	0-2	13-3
Orangeville Northmen	7-1	5-0	0-0	0-5	2-1	9-1	9-1	2-4	1-5	2-6	10-0
Peterborough Lakers	2-1	9-0	0-4	0-5	0-1	7-1	9-2	0-4	0-5	2-6	8-1
Brampton Excelsiors	4-1	8-0	0-2	0-3	1-2	8-1	9-0	0-4	1-6	2-7	8-0
Barrie Lakeshores	2-0	5-0	2-6	0-8	3-0	5-0	6-0	3-8	1-9	3-9	6-1
KW Braves	2-1-1	5-0	0-4	0-6	0-4	4-1-1	7-0-1	1-8	0-8	1-8	6-3-1
Toronto Beaches	3-0	4-0	1-3	0-9	1-1	3-3	5-1	2-7	1-11	0-9	6-3
St. Catharines Athletics	1-0	2-0	0-3	0-15	0-0	1-1	2-1	1-14	0-16	0-12	2-5
Mississauga Tomahawks	1-0	0-0	0-2	0-13	0-0	0-3	0-0	0-12	1-16	0-14	1-2

2013 Jr B League Awards

The OLA Jr B League announced their award winners for both Eastern and Western Conference on the weekend. Congratulations to all the winners for their fantastic seasons.

Rookie of the Year
East- Connor Ham- Newmarket Saints
West- Sam Postma- Brampton Excelsiors

Most Sportsmanlike Player
East- Zach Hopps- Akwesasne Indians
West- Mike Rybka- London Blue Devils

Most Valuable Defensive Player
East- Oakley Thomas- Akwesasne Indians
West- Joel Shepley- Wallaceburg Red Devils

Most Valuable Player
East- Connor Buchanan- Nepean Knights
West- Jordan Durston- Wallaceburg Red Devils

Coaching Staff of the Year
East- Nepean Knights
West- Niagara Thunderhawks

Expected Wins vs Actual Wins

When we started our Expanded Standings project in May, we knew that it would take us beyond just the simple statistics of Wins and Losses into all kinds of different areas. One of the more interesting items we have been quietly tracking is called the Pythagoreon Expectations or Expected Wins for each team.

Pythagoreon Expectations was developed by Bill James who is a renowned statistics expert in that other summer sport, Baseball. What does Baseball have to with Lacrosse? Well not much but Mr. James did find that you could fairly accurately determine a team’s season end win total if you calculated their run differential throughout the season. In short, the good teams nearly always scored more runs than they gave upand the best teams did it by a wide margin. Pretty simple and easily translated to other sports since the same corollary of “better teams score more than they give up” is true in Hockey, Football and Lacrosse.

For Lacrosse, we often decide ties in tournaments and leagues by using the Goal Formula. For a refresh:

Goal Formula = Goals For/ (Goals For + Goals Against)

The Pythagoreon Expectation (PE) formula gives you an idea of how many games a team “should win” based on their scores throughout the season. The PE is an adjustment to the above Goal Formula:

PE %= (Goals For ^2.37)/((Goals For ^2.37)+(Goals Against ^2.37))

            Taking a simple formula and using the exponent of 2.37 gives us a rough idea of the expected winning percentage for a given team based on their Goals For and Goals Against. It does not adjust for certain items like injuries or trades (heck every team has to deal with them and at some point you just are what you are as a team regardless) but it also shows that some times a team’s record is less than it should be because of factors they cannot control like timing of injuries and luck.

            Now lets take a peek at both the Ontario and BC Expected Wins as of July 4:

Ontario                                PE%  ExW               

Six Nations Arrows	0.793	15.86
Burlington Chiefs	0.635	12.70
Whitby Warriors	0.676	13.52
Orangeville Northmen	0.596	11.92
Peterborough Lakers	0.622	12.44
Barrie Lakeshores	0.496	9.93
Brampton Excelsiors	0.529	10.58
KW Braves	0.486	9.71
Toronto Beaches	0.368	7.35
St. Catharines Athletics	0.137	2.75
Mississauga Tomahawks	0.145	2.90

BC                                             PE%   ExW

Coquitlam Adanacs	0.772	16.22
New Westminster Salmonbellies *	0.759	15.94
Langley Thunder	0.592	12.43
Victoria Shamrocks	0.627	13.17
Delta Islanders	0.606	12.72
Port Coquitlam Saints	0.418	8.78
Nanaimo Timbermen *	0.288	6.04
Burnaby Lakers	0.099	2.08

Ontario Notes:

            Burlington (12.7) and Peterborough (12.4) both show at around 12.5 Expected Wins based on the PE formula but the Chiefs have exceeded that expectation while the Lakers are lagging. Orangeville looked to be well ahead of pace before their recent 3 game losing streak brought them back to reality.

           

            The one Ontario team that has seen some recent volatility in this measure are the Brampton Excelsiors. Ten days ago the maroon and gold were even with Peterborough and Burlington for roughly 12 wins. Then they have a bad week and drop down to an expected 10.5 wins. We are willing to give the Excelsiors the benefit of the doubt for an off week but they are worth monitoring further.

            The Arrows have clearly pushed ahead and now look like the team everyone expected in May. The Beaches have managed to turn around a horrible start but they will run out of games in their efforts to catch KW. Barrie’s great start will earn them a playoff berth and a date with either Whitby or Six Nations in the first round.

BC Notes:

            Not unexpectedly, the Adanacs and Salmonbellies are the class of the west. Even with a forfeited game the Bellies look good for their expected win total.

            Delta’s deadline trade of the league’s top two scorers in Cody Nass and Eli McLaughlin netted a huge haul of prospects and draft picks. It also leaves one wondering why? They stand fairly even with Victoria and Langley in PE% which means they should have an even chance against either opponent in a first round playoff series. Though with Coquitlam and New West the dominant forces, perhaps cutting bait and building for 2014 was the best course of action.

            Pity poor Nanaimo. With one win on the season they have underperformed their Expected Wins quite severely. They will be the ultimate test going into 2014. Are they as bad as their record or does the PE% number foreshadowing better times ahead for the Timbermen?

BC Jr A Expanded Standings Week 9

The irresistible force and the immovable object met at Queen's Park Arena on Saturday night as the Salmonbellies hosted Coquitlam. Despite outshooting the visitors by 20, New Westminster saw their winning streak snapped by the Adanacs who now have a choke hold on first place. The rematch is this week in Coquitlam but as the season draws to a close on Sunday, expect these two teams to be in full "message sending" mode with their seedings pretty much set.

The big game of the week will take place Thursday as Langley hosts Delta with all kinds of playoff positioning at stake. A Delta victory brings them level with the Thunder. More importantly it also opens up the door for Victoria to sneak into third place if they can beat Nanaimo and sweep Poco in a home and home. A Langley win should be enough to earn them the third spot and home floor for the first round.

On a separate note, welcome back the NLL Vancouver!

Team	W	L	T	Pts	GF	GA	Home	H GF	H GA	Away	A GF	A GA	OT
Coquitlam Adanacs	15	3	0	30	199	128	7-2	100	70	8-1	99	58	0
New Westminster Salmonbellies *	14	5	0	28	245	151	9-2	159	79	6-2	86	72	1-1
Langley Thunder	12	7	0	24	201	177	5-3	86	70	7-4	115	107	2-1
Victoria Shamrocks	11	7	0	22	237	195	5-4	112	94	6-3	125	101	1-1
Delta Islanders	11	8	0	22	206	164	5-4	106	80	6-4	100	84	1-1
Port Coquitlam Saints	7	11	1	15	180	207	3-6-1	92	104	4-5	88	103	1-0-1
Nanaimo Timbermen *	2	15	1	5	157	228	0-9	78	102	1-7-1	79	126	0-1-1
Burnaby Lakers	1	17	0	2	123	298	0-9	63	153	1-8	60	145	0

Team	2 G less	3G +	v.500+=	v.500-	GF 1st	GA 1st	GF 2nd	GA 2nd	GF 3rd	GA 3rd	GF OT	GA OT
Coquitlam Adanacs	3-1	13-1	9-2	5-1	78	34	62	54	59	40	0	0
New Westminster Salmonbellies	3-2	12-2	8-3	7-0	81	45	83	55	79	47	2	4
Langley Thunder	3-4	9-3	5-7	6-0	53	54	78	57	63	62	7	4
Victoria Shamrocks	4-1	7-6	5-7	5-0	73	63	89	63	73	65	2	4
Delta Islanders	3-4	8-4	4-7	6-1	60	47	76	58	68	57	2	2
Port Coquitlam Saints	3-1-1	4-10	2-9	5-1-1	56	69	66	74	54	66	2	0
Nanaimo Timbermen	0-5-1	1-11	0-12	1-3-1	45	72	56	84	56	71	0	1
Burnaby Lakers	1-0	0-17	0-11	1-5	38	100	51	116	36	80	0	0

Team	Ld 2L-L5	Ld 3+- L5	Tr 2L-L5	Tr 3+ -L5	T-L5	Ld 1st	Ld 2nd	Tr 1st	Tr 2nd	Opp >=10	Opp <10 td="">
Coquitlam Adanacs	2-0	11-0	0-1	0-1	0-1	15-1	15-0	0-2	0-3	0-2	15-1
New Westminster Salmonbellies	2-0	13-0	1-3	0-1	3-2	12-1	13-0	3-2	1-4	2-3	13-1
Langley Thunder	3-1	7-0	1-2	0-5	3-2	7-1	10-1	3-5	1-6	2-5	10-2
Victoria Shamrocks	4-1	7-0	0-1	0-5	3-1	7-1	11-1	2-6	0-5	4-7	7-0
Delta Islanders	2-1	9-0	0-4	0-4	2-3	7-2	9-1	3-4	0-7	1-5	10-3
Port Coquitlam Saints	4-0-1	3-0	1-1	0-9	2-1-1	4-3	5-0-1	2-8-1	2-9	2-9-1	5-2
Nanaimo Timbermen	0-0	1-0	0-6-1	0-10	0-3-1	1-3-1	1-1	0-12	0-13-1	1-15-1	0-1
Burnaby Lakers	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-17	0-0	0-2	0-0	1-14	0-17	1-17	0-0