If you read our posting from Tuesday, you will know that we were inspired by an article from Freakonomics to look at the relationship between volume shooters and efficient shooters. We are taking a look at the Top 15 Shots at Goal (SAG) vs Top 15 in Shooting Efficiency (eS%)and how that translates into team success. Special thanks to Dan Shirley for providing us with the date on eS% for individuals and the teams in general.
Top 15 SAG:
Player Team SAG eS% Team Win %age
Cody Jamieson ROC 90 0.309 0.333
John Grant Jr. COL 87 0.326 1.000
Lewis Ratcliff WAS 84 0.201 0.200
Rhys Duch WAS 75 0.222 0.200
Luke Wiles BUF 74 0.299 0.333
John Tavares BUF 62 0.371 0.333
Brendan Mundorf PHI 61 0.177 0.600
Kevin Crowley PHI 61 0.335 0.600
Stephen Keogh ROC 60 0.235 0.333
Jeff Shattler CGY 59 0.256 0.600
Drew Westervelt PHI 58 0.370 0.600
Shawn Evans CGY 56 0.227 0.600
Mike Accursi ROC 56 0.287 0.333
Ryan Benesch MIN 54 0.417 0.600
Dane Dobbie CGY 53 0.214 0.600
The average Team winning %age for this group? It's .484.
Top 15 eS% (minimum 18 SAG):
Player Team eS% Team Win %age
Adam Jones COL 0.455 1.000
Johnny Powless ROC 0.441 0.333
Ryan Benesch MIN 0.417 0.600
Jordan MacIntosh MIN 0.413 0.600
Cory Vitarelli ROC 0.399 0.333
Corbyn Tao MIN 0.393 0.600
John Tavares BUF 0.371 0.333
Drew Westervelt PHI 0.370 0.600
Chad Culp BUF 0.362 0.333
Josh Sanderson TOR 0.356 0.600
Kevin Crowley PHI 0.335 0.600
John Grant Jr. COL 0.326 1.000
Gavin Prout COL 0.321 1.000
Scott Evans EDM 0.321 0.250
Scott Ranger CGY 0.321 0.600
The average Team Winning %age for this group? It's .585 which is a huge gap from the average for high volume shooters. I would read this as the better teams have more efficient offences. The game still comes down to the ability to outscore your opponents. If you can score on 30% of your shots at goal and your opponent only does it on 27% of their shots on goal, you are more likely to win unless you are outshot by a wide margin.
Colorado is undefeated because they have all 3 of their top Offensive players in the Top 15 in eS% including an incredible 0.455 for rookie, Adam Jones (not surprising to those of us in Ontario who knew how good Jones would be). Washington is in last place because Duch and Ratcliff are dominating the shot totals while being inefficient scorers. Efficient offence equals wins.
It was also interesting that 3 rookies are in the top 4 in eS% (MacIntosh and Powless on top of Jones) which shows how deep the past year's draft really was.
On a lark, I expanded the grouping to look at players with 10 shots or more (about an average of 2 per game)which should include more Transition players which are an important source of scoring this year. The top 3 in eS% in this expanded level would be Andrew Suitor of Minnesota (0.643 eS%), Jamie Rooney of Toronto (0.562 eS%) and Brodie Merrill of Philadelphia (0.467 eS%). It's no surprise that they all play for teams with winning records. Rooney is showing that he belongs in the Toronto lineup after being a healthy scratch in the Rock's first two games.
The Ugly side of that are Ned Crotty of Philadelphia (0.090 eS%), Joel Henry of Minnesota (0.100 eS%) and Dean Hill of Washington (0.109 eS%). Maybe those three should dish to the Offence and take less shots.
Those who wish to hear more stats talk from Dan Shirley, follow him on Twitter @danshirley. He talks Lax and Washington State University athletics (Go Cougs)